Models
Independent Economics (formerly Econtech Pty Ltd) is strongly committed to independent economic modelling that provides robust analysis and real solutions for your economic problems. Our future
work that models the Australian economy will use the completely new models that we are now developing. These include an
industry model and a forecasting model.
Industry CGE model
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models provide a powerful tool for simulating the economic impacts on a country or region of
changes in government economic policies, industry developments, and the world economy. They show impacts on economic activity, employment,
trade and investment at the level of individual industries, impacts on households and impacts on the economy as a whole.
Chris Murphy and Kelly Neill have successfully developed and applied CGE models in Australia and abroad. For example, they collaborated in a team that modelled the economic impacts of Australia's key 19 taxes for the
Australian Treasury for use in the Henry Tax Review. At IE they are developing an exciting new CGE model of Australia for use in our future work.
Our completely new CGE model, to be available for use in the first half of 2012, will include the following features:
- use the latest ABS input-output tables in its database
- include a high level of industry detail
- incorporate sophisticated modelling of the responses of industries and households to economic shocks
For more information, email Kelly Neill or phone her on 0429 013 334.
Forecasting Macro Model
The best macroeconometric models judiciously balance economic principles and evidence from historical data in capturing the broad workings of
a national economy. This makes them powerful tools to enhance the accuracy of economic forecasting and deliver insights into fiscal and monetary policy.
Chris Murphy, the Director of IE, is well-known as a developer of macroeconometric models, and in recent years has collaborated with
Dinar Prihardini. At IE, they are developing a completely new macroeconometric model that will take modelling in this area in Australia to the next level.
Our new macro model, to be available for use in the first half of 2012, will include the following features:
- generate forecasts on a quarter-by-quarter basis to a long-term horizon
- strong data consistency for more accurate forecasting
- solid theoretical foundations for more robust policy analysis
For more information, email Dinar Prihardini or phone her on 0419 024 330.
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